LYNN LA • SEPTEMBER 28, 2023
California is at the center of the political universe this week — at least in Republican circles.
Wednesday night at the Ronald Reagan presidential library in Simi Valley, seven GOP presidential contenders showed up for the second televised primary debate. But one very large elephant wasn’t in the room — former President Donald Trump, who spent Wednesday in swing state Michigan instead.
Trump, however, will be at the state Republican Party fall convention in Anaheim. He’s popular among the rank-and-file, and he’s the scheduled keynote speaker for the Friday luncheon, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis set to deliver the Friday dinner address.
But as CalMatters Capitol reporter Sameea Kamal explains, much more is at stake at the convention than any boost for a presidential candidate.
The California Republican Party, which hasn’t won a statewide election since 2006, is at something of a crossroads. One example: In July, its policy committee recommended updating its platform to remove specific opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion — two policies that are popular in California.
But many in the party are not keen on changing its core ideologies to court new voters.
- Eric Early, who has lost twice for attorney general and is now running for U.S. Senate: “The last thing we should be doing as a state party right now is trying to water down the party platform to try and kowtow, frankly, to certain groups that will never be friendly to Republicans, regardless.”
But staying true to its base may hurt the party’s prospects in 2024. As Mike Madrid, former political director for the state party and a longtime political strategist, told Capitol Weekly: “The Republican Party is really not trying to be a viable political party anymore in California. It’s kind of content being this small, regional marginalized social movement… and that’s probably what it’ll be for a very long time.”
Read more on the state of the state GOP in Sameea’s story.
Survey says: A new poll provides some context for the convention. The Public Policy Institute of California poll found that Trump is at 48% among Republican likely voters — just short of the 50% plus one he needs in March to sweep all 169 delegates under the new rules party leaders passed. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the only other candidate in double digits, at 14%.
But in a rematch with President Biden, the poll suggests that Trump would lose handily, again, in deep-blue California: Biden leads 57% to 26% among likely voters. He beat Trump in 2020 by a 63% to 34% margin.
And in the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Dianne Feinstein, if the primary were today, it appears that two Democrats would move on to the general election. Among likely voters, Reps. Adam Schiff (20%) and Katie Porter (15%) are well ahead. A third Democrat, Rep. Barbara Lee, is at 8%. Two Republicans, James Bradley and Early, each come in at 5%.
A reminder: A poll is only a snapshot in time and is only as accurate as the methodology. This one was conducted Aug. 25 to Sept. 5 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points among likely voters.
While Trump was a no-show at the debate, guess who stopped by?
Gavin Newsom, representing the Biden campaign, appeared at what he earlier dismissed as “a vice presidential debate.” And California’s governor wasn’t any more charitable afterwards: “What a clown show.”
In the “spin room,” Newsom elaborated a little, telling MSNBC that the candidates didn’t offer any real solutions. “I really believe the winner tonight was the Biden agenda,” he said. And on Fox News: “Joe Biden won the debate.”
Newsom also called DeSantis a liar and a hypocrite, to which Fox anchor Sean Hannity replied: “Save that for the debate.”
That would be the long-negotiated Fox face-off between Newsom and DeSantis on Nov. 30. In an interview Wednesday with Fox 11 Los Angeles anchor Elex Michaelson, Newsom said he’s not sure that DeSantis will still be a presidential candidate by then since he’s “belly flopped” so badly.
“The fact he took the bait in relation to this debate shows he’s completely unqualified to be president of the United States,” Newsom said. “…Why’s he debating a guy who’s not even running for president?”
