The Inflation They Can’t Hide

COLUMN

By Eric Peters

You can’t reduce the size of a 4×8 sheet of plywood to hide the rising cost of one – or shave some length off a 2x4x8 – without it being not only obvious but an issue, functionally. Try siding a house with 4×7.4 sheets of plywood, for instance.

So, instead, the price goes up. Which is really a measure of the value of your money going down.

The same has been happening for some time at supermarkets, less noticeably. Or at least in a way that makes many people not notice it because that pack of bacon they just bought still costs about the same as it cost a year ago.

Only now it’s 12 ounces instead of 16.

Fewer rolls of paper towels – but the price seem unchanged. Such illusions of economic stability are to be found in practically every aisle and on every shelf of the grocery store – the happy spell only broken when you check out your handful of stuff and discover it cost you $100 – or more – for what used to cost you $60 or less.

But the destruction of the value of money – manifested by its ominously decreasing purchasing power – is becoming impossible to not notice when it comes to products that can’t be skimmed, put less of into the same size packages.

A very objective measure of how fast things are slipping – by observing how fast things are rising – is what you could call The 4×8 Plywood Index. About two years ago – in the fall of 2018 – the average national cost of a sheet of 4×8 construction-grade plywood was just $10 or so.

Fast-forward two years and that same sheet of plywood now costs $25 or more (depending on the finish). Some cost $40 per sheet. Have a look for yourself. Or do a fly-by of your local Lowes or Home Depot.

This is a 90-plus percent increase in cost – over about 24 months – a Venezuelan-style uptick – and while it it true that some of the cost uptick is probably due to temporary scarcity/increased demand – there is a building boom under way, the result of resumed construction after months of government-imposed “lockdowns” in the name of “stopping the spread” – it’s not an isolated cost uptick, which indicates it’s not just a temporary cost uptick caused by natural supply-demand fluctuations.

The cost of everything, just about, is going up. Which doesn’t reflect an increase in the value of things but rather a decrease in the value of the thing used to purchase them.

The “federal” reserve note – which isn’t even a note anymore but rather a kind of digital widget they (the central banking cartel) don’t even need to print to inflate. Just keyboard an increase in the “money supply” and – presto! – there you go.

Or rather, there you pay.

Manifoldly.

The money you are paid buys less – which means you’re working more for less – and the money you’ve saved (if you’ve managed to do so) is also worth less.

Just the thing on top of the kneecapping of millions of people’s small businesses by the government which is the frontman for the banking cartel – not “the virus,” which didn’t “lock down” anyone.

Much less “inflate” anything.

America is becoming Venezuela, courtesy of the government and the central banking cartel – but many Americans (probably like many Venezuelans) do not see it happening even as they pay for it as it’s happening. Like seagulls pecking at a piece of tinfoil at the beach, they do see the $1,400 (plus the previous $600) “stimulus” checks they got from the same government that is responsible for causing things to cost a great deal more than what they got.

This is both an epic con as well as epic testimony to the innumeracy of many Americans, especially those who supported the president selected.

Some of them may be unworried about the 90-plus percent increase in the cost of a 4×8 sheet of plywood and the doubling in cost, just about, of a 2x4x8 – which does not affect them directly if they already have a house, for instance – or are not looking to remodel it.

But do they notice they’re paying $6 for a 12 oz. package of bacon that used to cost the same or less for a 16 oz. package? It is possible they don’t as things look more or less the same – provided you don’t look too closely. Provided you don’t think too much about the fact that a pack of bacon is no longer enough for the family’s breakfasting needs. That two packs are now needed to feed the same bunch the same amount.

The one thing they cannot help but notice is the increased cost of a gallon of fuel, now about $2.88 (and rising, inexorably) according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). That amounts to an increase of about 30 percent in the course of about three months.

I wrote a few weeks back about the fact that this rising cost all by itself vitiates the value – the buying power conferred – of the “stimulus” checks, plural. Americans are paying at least an extra $12 or so to fill up the average-sized car’s tank  – which works out to about $40 more per month they no longer have to buy things with, including 4×8 sheets and 2x4s and bacon.

In a year’s time – assuming the cost of gas doesn’t increase even more – or rather, that the value of money doesn’t decrease even more – this one line item will have reduced their buying power by at least $480, not counting the increased cost of things like 4×8 sheets and 2x4s and packs of downsized bacon.

If nothing changes over the next four years, what has already changed will cost them at least $1,920 – almost exactly what they received in “stimulus” from the government fronting the banking cartel.

Stalin’s chicken is clucking, somewhere.

Some of the rising cost of fuel is, of course, due to the fact of the president selected’s “executive actions,” including the cancellation of the Keystone pipeline and a “pause” in the issuance of new leases to extract oil and natural gas on land owned by the federal government. But there is – once again – the ominous fact that prices are rising generally.

Which indicates the value of money is declining, accordingly.

Which is something people ought to be worrying about a lot more than “the virus,” which has only cost them their freedom and peace of mind.

This could cost them whatever they have left.

 . . . 

Source:

Eric Peters is the Founder, CEO, and CIO of One River Asset Management and its subsidiary, One River Digital Asset Management. One River is an innovative investment manager dedicated to delivering high-conviction discretionary and quantitative strategies that help its clients build superior portfolios.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Citizens Journal

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